Saturday, March 9, 2019

New Article Published: “Human Rights Conditions: What We Know and Why it Matters”

By Patrick Finnegan

I am delighted to announce that the current issue of the Minnesota Journal of International Law (Winter 2019) is carrying an article that I co-wrote with David Weissbrodt, Regents Professor of Emeritus at the University of Minnesota Law School.  Professor Weissbrodt is my long-time employer and a mentor, so I am deeply honored to share a byline with him.  Our article explores the causal research on human rights violations and compliance.  The Abstract is reproduced below (footnotes omitted).  The entire article can be accessed here on the Minnesota Journal of International Law website.

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Human Rights Conditions: What We Know and Why it Matters
David Weissbrodt and Patrick Finnegan

Abstract

It may be impossible to understand the cause of every human rights violation. Causal research is a useful endeavor, however, as it sheds light on the conditions that produce human rights violations and compliance. Such knowledge can help improve the effectiveness of human rights advocacy strategies to target and influence these conditions. This survey examines four broad themes: (A) Government Behavior and Structure; (B) Armed Conflict; (C) Economic Factors; and (D) Psychological Factors. The findings by scholars and practitioners are myriad and complex, but some general trends are observable. Democratic governments tend to better protect a broad range of human rights, especially when paired with an independent judiciary. Democratization may involve short-term disruption but has long-term payoffs in respect for human rights. Repression in weak states heightens the likelihood of civil wars. Armed conflict, in turns, tends to generate the most grave human rights abuses. Economic factors are deeply intertwined with the full spectrum of human rights in two key ways: (1) the distribution of resources (economic, social, and cultural rights); and (2) economic structures and incentives that may encourage repression. Individual psychological factors, such as the tendency to obey authority, group identity, and exclusionary ideologies can lead people to commit atrocities, especially in the context of armed conflict. 

Following this overview, the article discusses some of the controversies and challenges in human rights research. These issues include: differences in qualitative and quantitative methods; surveillance bias in statistical work; and the difficulty of comparative work. The article then explores theories of how international human rights norms influence state behavior and how this influence affects domestic conditions. The article concludes by reiterating that causal research can improve advocacy, and adds that it may serve a persuasive function as well. Causal research can help human rights advocates make the case for policies that contribute to the promotion and protection of human rights. It can do so by establishing the credibility of policy proposals, demonstrating that advocates understand the problems they seek to address.

Monday, November 5, 2018

This Election Matters, but it is not the Last Word

By Patrick Finnegan

Here is what I want to say before the U.S. 2018 midterm elections tomorrow: yes, this election is important. As interim elections go, it is arguably more important than most in recent history. But regardless of the outcome, we who believe in human rights and the inherent dignity of all people can, should, and must continue to fight for those invaluable principles. 

The Trump Administration and the Republican Party have demonstrated an extraordinary disdain for truth, justice, inclusion, and basic human decency. It is our moral imperative to fight for these principles up to, on, and beyond Tuesday. As Dr. Martin Luther King declared, “the arc of the moral universe is long, but bends toward justice.” I believe this is true, but we must actively do the bending. The U.S. election of 2016 revealed that xenophobia, fear, and racist mythologizing are still more powerful in our country than many of us hoped. But it also revealed that structural mechanisms, election tampering, and other factors in our imperfect democracy that can thwart the popular will (as you will recall, Trump lost the popular vote despite his electoral college victory). Those mechanisms are still at work. 


We may be able to defeat these obstacles through massive turnout in the short-term. In the long-term, however, what is most important is a continuous and unrelenting commitment to a vision of a just, fair, and inclusive society where people are free from persecution because of their race, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, religion, country of origin, etc.; where people are committed to leaving behind a better and more sustainable world for their children; where basic factual truths matter and inform policy rather than serve as objects of denial, derision, and ridicule; where compassion and empathy are held in great esteem rather than regarded with dismissiveness and contempt. This is the kind of future I want for my child and for which I will fight in whatever small capacity I can. I know I’m only a drop in the bucket. Taken in the singular, we all are, I suppose. But add together many drops and suddenly there’s a full bucket. I hope you will join me.

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This post represents the opinion of the author in his personal capacity and should not be construed as the official position of any agency, organization, or contractor by which the author is presently or has been previously employed.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

We Need to Look at Gun Deaths as a Public Health Issue


By Melissa and Patrick Finnegan

In the wake of a number of recent school shootings – including the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in February in Parkdale, Florida – we saw the re-emergence of gun policy in national headlines and social media.  In some ways, developments took a familiar turn; exasperated members of the public call for better gun regulation while gun-rights advocates – led by the National Rifle Association – argue that such measures are futile and infringe on individual rights. In the estimation of the latter, the only way to protect against school shootings is more armed personnel in schools.  The difference this time is that student survivors from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School launched a campaign to reform gun policy that has the potential to become a sustained national movement.

We believe that this is the time to have a discussion about gun deaths and public policy, specifically from the public health perspective.  There is a qualitative factor in gun deaths that make them a public health issue.  The purpose of guns is to kill.  Whether it be in the context of animal hunting or use against another human being, the main purpose of a gun is to kill efficiently.  How a gun is used is, of course, integral to the discussion.  The fact remains, however, that even when utilized carefully and responsibly, a gun is a dangerous instrument, the use of which carries an elevated risk of injury and death, both to the self and to others.

To understand the effects of guns on U.S. society, we need to confront some basic truths.  Guns are ubiquitous in the U.S.  As civilian populations go, U.S. residents are heavily armed; with 42% of the world’s civilian-owned guns (see chart 2), our rate of ownership far exceeds all other countries in the world, including the runner up, Yemen, which is in the midst of a brutal civil war.  Gun related deaths average approximately 33,000 a year in the United States.  In our home state of Minnesota, 432 people died by guns in 2016, more deaths than were caused by opioid use (395) or traffic crashes (392).  Facts like these make gun deaths a public health concern.  While the majority of these deaths are suicides, the U.S. gun homicide rate still far exceeds any other high-income country (see charts 1 and 6). 

Although it may be tempting to assume that more crime explains our higher homicide rate, it turns out that U.S. violent crime rates are comparable to that of peer countries; the key difference is that assault in the U.S. is more fatal because it more often involves guns.  This holds for suicide attempts too (see charts 10-12); guns are far more effective tools of suicide than suffocation, poisoning, cutting, or other methods.  While “guns don’t kill people, people do” may be a popular slogan, it would be more apt to say that “guns don’t kill people, but they make it much easier.” 

With all of this in mind, we advocate approaching guns from the standpoint of public health.  As a society, we regulate access to hazardous things for health reasons all the time.  If it becomes clear that current regulations are inadequate in curbing preventable deaths, we attempt to change policy. Take the issue of opioids: the over-prescription of these drugs has led to widespread addiction-related deaths.  Although there are laws on the books that restrict access to opioids, these laws have failed to prevent a public health crisis.  As such, we as a country are now in the midst of a national discussion of which policies will be most effective in reducing opioid deaths.  Many of the proposals on the table involve restricting how often opioids are prescribed.  Opioids have their purpose in medicine, even when used with circumspection, but they still pose an elevated risk to patients. 

In addition, we restrict an individual’s use of a substance or product if there is a high risk of harm to the self or others.  Take alcohol and driving for example.  Alcohol use is regulated in our home state of Minnesota (as it is elsewhere): you have to be a certain age to purchase alcohol and providers (aka, bartenders) can choose not to serve you if you appear to be inebriated.  As a community, we have decided that – in this instance – limiting an individual’s alcohol consumption is both appropriate and desirable in the name of public safety.

It would paint an incomplete picture, however, to only talk about restricting access to opioids and alcohol without examining the underlying issues that lead to their abuse.  Family histories of addiction or mental illness, as well as poverty and other social determinants of health, are critical factors to understanding widespread alcohol or opioid abuse.  And so it should be when considering gun policy.  Our main point is that we must have a variety of policy tools at our disposal to address complex public health problems. 

Reducing gun deaths will require long- and short-term policy solutions, but also cultural change in how the U.S. public, broadly speaking, views guns.  We will briefly list some policy proposals we believe should be adopted or considered to reduce gun deaths.  This list is not exhaustive, nor is it meant to be definitive.  (This is a blog entry, after all.).

Firstly, we need good quality research on gun violence to craft good policy in the long term.  The Centers for Disease Control was only recently relieved of a ban on studying the causes of gun deaths.  In our home state, Minnesota Statutes, section 144.05, subdivision 5, prevents the Minnesota Department of Health from even collecting statistics on gun ownership.  Information on gun ownership can help inform public policy regarding – for example – the safe and secure storage of firearms, including the separation of ammunition.  Additionally, public policy would benefit from deeper research into the root causes of gun violence, including social determinants, public attitudes about violence, and mental health concerns.  As such, we advocate (a) the immediate reversal of Minnesota’s research prohibition, and (b) investment in health-based research on the causes of gun violence.

When discussing potential policy options, we should also distinguish between homicides and suicides.  In terms of homicide, it is also useful to separate mass shootings from “ordinary” murders. In the case of most ordinary murders, the perpetrator and the victim(s) know each other; material advantage or interpersonal dispute are the primary motives.  Mass shootings, while often involving revenge-based motivations, are less discriminate.  As such, the tools of each type of homicide are a bit different.

The AR-15 has become the preferred tool of mass shooters in the U.S.  As detailed in Tim Dickinson’s exposé on the AR-15, it was originally a military weapon designed to kill with maximum effectiveness.  Its high-velocity rounds and rapid rate of fire enable it to kill many people in a very small amount of time, even in its civilian iterations.  It is substantially more lethal than a 9mm handgun.  Additionally, its mass marketing in the past decade, coupled with the 2004 expiration of the assault weapons ban, has made it widely available.  Bump stocks – which increase the weapon’s rate of fire – and other customizable options have enabled it to become an even deadlier weapon.  As such, we advocate the re-institution of the ban on civilian ownership of the AR-15 and other assault weapons, as well as the accompanying accessories that increase the lethality of such weapons.  President Trump’s executive order to ban bump stocks seems like a step in the right direction, but it is still unclear if that policy will stick.

To be clear, we do not advocate a total ban on the possession of all firearms.  We do, however, believe that there should be universal background checks, as well as stricter permitting, licensing, and storage regulations.  The gun show loophole is a well-known issue that enables the purchase of guns without a background check at such events, which makes it easier for persons with criminal records to legally acquire firearms.  According to recent survey data, most people – including most NRA members – support universal background checks on all gun sales.  A number of studies strongly suggest that robust background and gun storage rules checks curb intimate partner killings and accidental child deaths.  In Switzerland, the country with the world’s third highest rate of gun ownership, persons who wish to purchase personal firearms undergo long background checks.  Owners must be licensed to possess semiautomatic weapons, rifles, and pistols, as well as keep them unloaded at all times except during immediate use.  While Switzerland’s rate of gun deaths is the highest in Europe, it is still one third of the U.S. rate. 

Connected to background checks and permitting, we also advocate the further exploration and adoption of Extreme Risk Protection Order policies.  These orders, effectively a restraining order for guns, enable the authorities to confiscate the firearms of persons deemed to be a violence or suicide risk.  Such laws should be carefully crafted to respect due process, of course, but also executable in a timely fashion to prevent imminent violence. 

One issue that gets brought up time and again after a mass shooting is mental health.  One common argument is that a more robust and accessible mental health system will curb gun violence.  When discussing the role of mental health in gun deaths, it is critical to distinguish between homicides and suicides.  Untreated depression is one of the main causes of suicide, so enhanced mental healthcare could very well have a positive effect.  If the ultimate goal of the public health view is to reduce all gun deaths, then policies that improve access to and the quality of mental healthcare must be a priority.

In terms of mass shootings, however, there is little convincing evidence that mental health interventions would have a positive effect.  As Olga Khazan wrote in The Atlantic in the wake of the Las Vegas shooting last year, “While improving access to mental health care might help lots of suffering Americans, researchers who study mass shootings doubt it would do much to curb tragedies like these. According to their work, the sorts of individuals who commit mass murder often are either not mentally ill or do not recognize themselves as such. Because they blame the outside world for their problems, mass murderers would likely resist therapies that ask them to look inside themselves or to change their behavior…very little violence is actually caused by mentally ill people.”  With this in mind, we advocate for investment in the mental healthcare system, with an emphasis on accessibility, especially for lower-income persons, while acknowledging that this policy intervention would most likely be effective in lowering suicides rather than homicides.  Additionally, it’s important to ensure that efforts to address mental health in connection with firearms do not maintain or exacerbate stigmas associated with mental health disorders.

While conventional mental health services may not prevent mass shootings, fostering a culture of inclusion and psychological support could prevent many school shootings.  As an NPR story on public approaches to school climate notes, “the very kids who bring weapons to school are more likely to report being bullied or threatened themselves. They may be fearful of gang violence and feel a need to protect themselves on the way back and forth to school.  Or, they may be individually ostracized and aggrieved.”  With this in mind, we advocate evidence-based school policies that stop bullying and discrimination, as well as establish student trust in school as an abuse-free environment.  We do not support arming teachers or other school personnel. And we cannot lay this burden on students alone, as the “walk up” movement has espoused.  Victims of school shootings should not be further victimized by accusations that if they had only been nicer to their fellow students, this tragedy wouldn’t have happened.  Anti-bullying and anti-discrimination efforts are important, but cannot solve this problem on their own.

The political feasibility of many of these policy proposals will depend on a number of factors, including public support and the political mobilization of reformers.  The political forces that oppose further – or any – regulation on guns have tended to prevail in the aftermath of previous mass shootings.  We believe in the possibility that, this time, things will be different.  We hope that the mobilization initiated by the Stoneman Douglas High School survivors continues to gain momentum.  Sustained engagement by reformers, both in advocacy and electoral politics, could turn the tide.

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This post represents the opinion of the authors in their personal capacity and should not be construed as the official position of any agency, organization, or contractor by which the authors are presently or have been previously employed. 

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Religion and Discrimination: Thoughts on the Masterpiece Cakeshop Case


By Patrick Finnegan

As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to rule on the case of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, it is important to consider the socio-political implications of the ruling.  The facts of the case are essentially thus: a gay couple approached Masterpiece Cakeshop in Lakewood, Colorado, about a wedding cake for their upcoming marriage ceremony and the proprietor, Jack Phillips, refused to serve them, citing his religious convictions opposing gay marriage.  Colorado’s Civil Rights Commission ruled that Mr. Phillips had violated Colorado’s prohibition on anti-LGBTQ discrimination.  Mr. Phillips, with the support of the Alliance Defending Freedom, took the case to federal court.

I think it is useful to step back from the legal formalities for a moment and consider the political and moral question involved in the Masterpiece Cakeshop case.  If sexual orientation is a question of inherent identity and not something that one chooses, then discriminating against people on that basis is morally equivalent to discrimination on the basis of race or sex.  It is still a U.S. political norm – however contested and unrealized – that discriminating against someone on the basis of their inherent identity is morally wrong.  A social conservative might respond that LGBTQ behavior is harmful and is therefore a legitimate basis for different treatment.  There is, however, no credible evidence that LGBTQ persons pose any threat to society because of their sexual orientation or identity.

A social conservative may also object to the premise that LGBTQ identity isn’t a choice, arguing that people choose to engage in “unnatural” behavior; therefore, refusing to serve them is a response to religiously objectionable behavior rather than inherent status.  Even if, for the sake of argument, we grant this premise (I don’t, but bear with me), then the issue is that religious objections to certain behaviors – even if tangible harm is unproven – constitute a valid reason for a vendor to treat one set of customers differently than others.  If that is the case, then the same logic could be applied to political affiliation or ideology.  Let’s say, for example, that I am a storeowner who has strong religiously rooted beliefs in non-discrimination and supporting the poor.  Such convictions are not uncommon among people of faith who lean left.  If I could make a coherent case that Republican policies violate my sincerely held religious beliefs – for example, by promoting discriminatory measures against LGBTQ persons – could I not make a coherent moral argument that I should not have to serve Republican customers because of what I believe to be their harmful behavior?  After all, political affiliation is a choice.

While there is certain moral logic to this line of reasoning, it runs into a legal obstacle: sexual orientation is not a federally protected status, unlike sex, race, and political association.  As I am not a lawyer, I will leave the legal intricacies of the Masterpiece Cakeshop case to those who are, but a quick overview shows where the gaps lie that may be filled by the Court’s decision. 

The Supreme Court’s ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) cited the Fourteenth Amendment’s equal protection clause to overturn state-level prohibitions on gay marriage.  The Fourteenth Amendment was also the basis for the Court’s 1967 ruling in Loving v. Virginia, which abolished state bans on interracial marriage.  The hitch here, however, is that the precedent of Obergefell is limited to state government entities, which regulate and issue marriage licenses, and thus does not extend to private businesses. 

While “places of public accommodation” are prohibited by the Civil Rights Act from discriminating against customers on the basis of race or sex, the Act does not specifically address sexual orientation.  It is possible – but not certain – that the Court will extend the meaning of sex discrimination to include sexual orientation and identity.  The Equal Employment Opportunities Commission has done so in regard to Title VII prohibitions on sexual discrimination.  The EEOC ruling, however, only applies to employers and not to customers. 

In this sense, then, the ruling in Masterpiece Cakeshop will break new legal ground.  The Masterpiece Cakeshop ruling will decide if the private right to religious freedom extends beyond personally held beliefs and into the public marketplace.  If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Masterpiece Cakeshop, it would effectively override key civil rights protections for LGBTQ persons in states across the country, protections that currently enable equal access to the marketplace.  Although sexual orientation is not a federally protected class, it is a protected class in Masterpiece Cakeshop’s home state of Colorado.  The Minnesota Human Rights Act also protects LGBTQ status in my home state.

Another set of questions that would be raised by a ruling in favor of the plaintiff: what constitutes “creative expression” in the marketplace and would, therefore, hypothetically enable religiously based discrimination against LGBTQ customers?  To what extent is wedding cake creation art – and thus protected First Amendment speech – and to what extent is it food service?  If wedding cake creation is an art, would a similar religious exemption apply to any caterer who views their food service as an art as well? Would a “sandwich artist” in a deli be able to invoke religious conviction to deny a sandwich to an LGBTQ couple?  What limits, if any, would there be on the ability of religiously conservative business owners to refuse service to LGBTQ persons by claiming that ordinary sales and services count as protected artistic expression?

A ruling against the plaintiff could have a wide-ranging or limited result.  For example, if the Supreme Court opts for a limited ruling, it might uphold the state of Colorado’s right to designate LGBTQ status as a protected class under state law.  A more expansive ruling may extend federal civil rights protection to LGBTQ persons in places of public accommodation and explicitly prohibit private businesses from discriminatory practices on that basis.  The Supreme Court made a similar ruling in regard to race in Heart of Atlanta Motel, Inc. vs. United States (1964). 

It remains to be seen what the Supreme Court will do.  If the Court rules in favor of Masterpiece Cakeshop, it would establish a tragic setback for LGBTQ rights in the United States.  A partial long-term legislative solution to cases like Masterpiece Cakeshop is for LGBTQ status to become a federally protected class, akin to race and sex, and enforced as such.  This change seems unlikely at the congressional level in the near term, but is certainly possible in the long-term.  In the meantime, we await the Court’s decision.

Friday, October 20, 2017

Me Too

By Melissa Finnegan

#metoo

I know, I know, I’m late to this party.  I’ve seen the hashtag go by and each one has resonated with me, but I didn’t feel the need to join in myself.  I've never been a victim of sexual assault (thankfully) and I didn’t feel like any harassment I’ve experience really warranted adding my voice to the chorus.  Because, in many ways, I’ve stopped recognizing it as harassment.

Yesterday, as my husband Patrick and I were wrapping up our day, he was watching clips from The Daily Show while I put away some painting supplies.  On my way to the basement I heard a female correspondent say “When it comes to sexual harassment, every day women are going through an obstacle course.  It’s like a ‘tough mudder,’ but instead of mud, it’s dicks.”  And it hit me.  Yes.  Yes we are.  That statement reminded me of an event that I had honestly forgotten about that had happened that morning.  At 8:30 am on a Wednesday, on my way to work, while I was wearing a conservative skirt and sweater, a van full of guys started hooting and hollering at me.  I rolled my eyes, kept going, and forgot about it.

And that’s how insidious it is.  It becomes a normal part of your day.  The constant navigation of the obstacle course.  Ignore the guys in the van.  Scan the men on the bus, looking for a threat.  Be hyper-aware of who’s around you at the bar.  It’s a constant background noise of vigilance that is so ingrained in so many women, we’re no longer consciously aware that we do it.

It’s even worse than that.  The fact that it’s so commonplace means that subtle escalations don’t seem to be that bad.  Get used to the hollering on the street and, suddenly, having your butt grabbed in a bar or while walking up a staircase isn’t that surprising.  And you shrug it off.  A guy at work gives you a full body look-over and leers, and later you laugh about it with your friends.  And on, and on, and on.  Each increasing level of harassment or borderline assault is less shocking because all the “lower level” harassment has just become so normal.

And it starts young.  I recall a friend of mine recounting how she watched older teenagers checking out her 12-year old.  Twelve.  And I wasn't surprised by that because, yeah, that’s when I seem to recall my first awareness of this part of reality as well.  That’s when I first started to learn how to navigate the obstacle course.

It’s important that we remember and tell these stories. Because the men in our lives, the good men, who would never dream of grabbing someone or yelling at them from a car, often don’t understand how pervasive this is.  Poor Patrick, the first time he was with me while someone drove by and cat-called me, he was so floored.  He was absolutely shocked that people actually do that.  And all I could do was look at him and say, “yeah, this happens all the time.”

So yes, #metoo.  #AllOfUs.  This is the world we live in and the world we’ve come to accept.  It’s a normal part of life that we don’t think about until someone stands up and says, “hey, this is not ok.”  Until we all stand up and say “IT'S NOT OK.”

This post represents the opinion of the author in her personal capacity and should not be construed as the official position of any agency, organization, or contractor by which the authors are presently or have been previously employed.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Reaction Roundup: The Firing of FBI Director James Comey


Two of the Ad Hoc Standing Committee’s contributing writers offer brief opinions on Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey.  While events continue to unfold rapidly in the wake of the dismissal, the act itself of firing carries some weighty implications, to which we turn our attention.  

Mel: What concerns me the most about this situation is that it is yet another example of President Trump’s tendency to act first and then ask questions or seek advice later.  His administration appears disorganized and chaotic because his staff is constantly required to react to the whims and caprices of a Commander in Chief who shoots from the hip with little to no context, forethought, or engagement.  President Trump fired Comey because he wanted to; it doesn’t matter if it was because of the Russia investigation, the Clinton emails, or because he didn’t like the tie Comey wore on TV.  What matters is that the President decided to do something drastic and went ahead and did it with – apparently – little thought given to its ramifications.  And then he was surprised when accolades didn’t come pouring in like he had anticipated.

The reason I find this concerning is because, for certain domestic political-institutional issues like this one, it’s largely insider baseball that political pundits like to talk about endlessly on TV, but with which the general public really doesn’t concern itself.  I doubt most Americans really care about who the head of the FBI is or, really, who he’s investigating at any given time.  It should matter to them, but I doubt that it does.  What I’m worried about is if President Trump is allowed to continue this pattern of impulsive action before reflection in the international sphere.  Foreign governments are significantly less, shall we say, understanding of spontaneous decision making than the general American public.  Missteps like this in the international arena could have much more dramatic consequences than pundits complaining on MSNBC.  Misread intentions can lead to people getting killed.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that anyone in the Trump Administration is willing – or able – to address this particular aspect of President Trump’s leadership style.  At some point, he will shoot from the hip on the international stage and we will be left with the fallout.  Hopefully it can be contained.

Patrick: Admittedly, my first reaction was tongue-in-cheek, something along the lines of  “Huh.  How ungrateful.”  Although there are convincing reasons to believe that Comey severely mishandled Clinton’s email investigation (example), to be fair, he appeared to be proceeding in some good faith with the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.  Comey’s apparent unwillingness to operate as a political loyalist reportedly infuriated Trump, whether the president thought Comey was too soft on Clinton; Comey continued to pursue the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections; Comey refused to back off the Flynn investigation when asked; or Comey refused to pledge personal loyalty to Mr. Trump (example 1, example 2).  Put in context with Trump’s conduct up to this point, the firing and subsequent fallout tell me three main things:

(1)  Trump acted impulsively.  Echoing Mel’s sentiment above, I believe this decision was not a premeditated one.  Although Trump’s irritation with Comey has reportedly been growing, the decision certainly came as a surprise to Trump advisors.  The White House communication strategy on Comey’s dismissal is practically non-existent and the communications team was apparently unprepared for the negative fallout.  As Comey was seeking additional resources for the investigation prior to his sacking, the decision may also have been made in a moment of panic. 

(2)  Trump believes he is still CEO, not the president.  This incident is one of a series in which Trump has been enraged and mystified when he is politically thwarted.  He is accustomed to obedience in his previous life as a CEO in a centralized corporate structure built around him specifically, a mentality that he brought with him to the White House.  Comey was not toeing the company line to Trump’s satisfaction and was therefore terminated.   Trump will – presumably – replace him with a more on-message director.  In a governance context, however, this mentality arguably undermines the accountability mechanisms and division of powers on which democracy is based. 

(3)  Accountability depends on the Republican Party.  Trump’s obvious reason for dumping Comey is to replace him with a director who will steer the FBI’s efforts away from the Russian connection.  Confirmation of a new FBI Director requires a simple 51-vote majority in the Senate, where Republicans hold 52 seats.  Although some Republicans have voiced concern about Comey’s termination, it remains to be seen what kind of director they will approve.  Additionally, while former FBI Director Robert Mueller has now been appointed by the Justice Department to lead the investigation in a special, independent capacity, it remains to be seen how much autonomy and cooperation he will receive.  

This post represents the opinion of the authors in their personal capacities and should not be construed as the official position of any agency, organization, or contractor by which the authors are presently or have been previously employed.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Healthcare in the United States: What Is The Problem?


By Melissa Finnegan
 
For quite some time now our country has debated the successes and failures of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the proposed Republican replacement plan, the American Health Care Act (AHCA).  The bulk of the conversation has centered on the cost of health insurance.  Premiums are too high and unaffordable for many.  Who has access?  What's covered and what do the networks look like?  Should everyone be required to have insurance?

Years ago, as a brand new graduate student at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, I took a class entitled Introduction to Policy Analysis with Dr. Sam Myers.  Dr. Myers lectures in much the same way a Baptist minister preaches.  It's enthusiastic, loud, and memorable.  It’s also designed to make you focus on deeper truths.  As a result of that class, one phrase is forever burned into my brain: “What. Is. THE PROBLEM?!

In consideration of that fundamental question, I argue that the cost of health insurance is not the main problem we need to solve.  It is a symptom of the real problem.

So what is the problem?  Healthcare costs in the United States are entirely too high and there are not enough structures in place to address them.  Steven Brill’s detailed exposé of medical costs in Time Magazine demonstrates how wildly inflated pricing devastates many patients and their families.  Until we can get the escalating cost of healthcare under control, health insurance premiums will continue to go up.    It won't matter if we continue with the ACA or repeal it and adopt the AHCA; the more expensive care is, the more insurance costs will rise to pay for it.

The misunderstanding of the problem is so pervasive that it's even invaded Google.  I entered the search phrase "average cost of health care" and the first page of results were all for sites addressing the cost of health insurance.  Not the question I asked.

I did finally find the information I was looking for and it doesn’t look good.  According to data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United States spends more on healthcare, per capita, than any other industrialized nation in the world.  But that spending does not translate into our population being healthier.  As shown by the OECD chart below, the United States is a clear outlier in terms of life expectancy related to per capita health spending.



One of the drivers of high health care costs is pharmaceutical drugs.  For example, according to a study conducted by the Minnesota Department of Health, approximately 20% of healthcare spending in Minnesota in 2013 was for pharmaceuticals.  Between 2009 and 2013, prescription drug spending rose 20.6%.  Developments in Minnesota are reflective of national trends; a recent federal health report found that prescription drug prices rose 12.6% in 2014.  One can only imagine how that these prices have grown in the past few years.  

But it's not just drugs alone.  As a pregnant woman, I'm especially interested in the cost of giving birth.  Luckily, I'm insured by my employer, but many people are not.  According to a Truven Health Analytics Marketscan Study, the average payment for a vaginal birth for someone with employer insurance is $12,520.  This price includes pharmacy fees, radiology/imaging fees, laboratory fees, professional services fees, professional anesthesiology fees, and facility fees.  

Notice I said "average payment" and not "average cost."  That's because how much is paid by the consumer is related to the type of insurance they carry.  The payment rates are entirely different depending on if the patient is on private insurance vs. Medicare or Medicaid.  Private insurance plans tend to pay more.  This is why, for example, the CEO of the Mayo Clinic recently admitted that, all other things being equal, Mayo will prioritize patients with private insurance over those on public programs.

So how do we address the real problem?  How do we bring healthcare costs down to a manageable level and, as a result, reduce the cost of health insurance?  There are a variety of options, including prioritizing public health efforts that help prevent people from getting sick in the first place.  Regulatory structures could set rules and guidelines for pricing. Also under consideration is movement away from a fee-for-service structure, where items are paid for on an à la carte basis.  In this model, providers make more money based on the number of services they provide, as opposed to results and outcomes.

My ultimately point is that we shouldn’t assume that erasing the ACA or resisting the AHCA will solve the deeper problem of healthcare costs that the United States is currently facing.  There is no question that the health insurance market needs to be addressed, but focusing only on that symptom without addressing the underlying problem is essentially putting a band-aid on an amputation.

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This post represents the opinion of the author in her personal capacity and should not be construed as the official position of any agency, organization, or contractor by which the author is presently or has been previously employed.